Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 0.125564 0.138445 0.151632 0.166111 0.181537 0.197450 0.215081
2024-12-15 0.102947 0.122098 0.142671 0.166291 0.192532 0.220671 0.253000
2024-12-22 0.084113 0.106827 0.132334 0.162795 0.197877 0.236717 0.282671
2024-12-29 0.074881 0.100827 0.131067 0.168355 0.212534 0.262666 0.323302
2025-01-05 0.066849 0.095049 0.129054 0.172195 0.224586 0.285298 0.360096
2025-01-12 0.059685 0.089392 0.126380 0.174548 0.234353 0.304948 0.393326
2025-01-19 0.053070 0.083649 0.122916 0.175331 0.241756 0.321496 0.422767
2025-01-26 0.051899 0.084906 0.128247 0.187116 0.262789 0.354685 0.472538
2025-02-02 0.047437 0.081165 0.126641 0.189679 0.272048 0.373398 0.504810
2025-02-09 0.043959 0.078450 0.126110 0.193409 0.282649 0.393737 0.539172
2025-02-16 0.039626 0.074062 0.122926 0.193298 0.288059 0.407450 0.565311
2025-02-23 0.038484 0.074344 0.126193 0.201891 0.304907 0.435768 0.609953
2025-03-02 0.037164 0.074432 0.129423 0.210888 0.322994 0.466628 0.659149
2025-03-09 0.033609 0.070664 0.126835 0.211650 0.330058 0.483441 0.690850
2025-03-16 0.029212 0.065068 0.121161 0.207728 0.330561 0.491634 0.711577
2025-03-23 0.027810 0.064409 0.122881 0.214414 0.345664 0.519126 0.757457
2025-03-30 0.026051 0.062941 0.123215 0.219002 0.357861 0.542872 0.798696
2025-04-06 0.024070 0.060859 0.122419 0.221803 0.367514 0.563272 0.835719
2025-04-13 0.021901 0.058187 0.120482 0.222736 0.374436 0.579999 0.868011
2025-04-20 0.022362 0.060624 0.126994 0.236660 0.400119 0.622365 0.934565
2025-04-27 0.020795 0.058895 0.126461 0.239683 0.410106 0.643466 0.973070
2025-05-04 0.019589 0.057765 0.126846 0.244079 0.422090 0.667370 1.015479
2025-05-11 0.017750 0.055105 0.124437 0.243948 0.427377 0.682055 1.045609